From the Wires
Research and Markets: 1Q09 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013: Movistar Argentina Will Continue to Take Market Share from CTI Over the Next Five Years
Mar. 3, 2009 10:53 AM
Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/75e813/1q09_argentina_mob)
has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report
"1Q09 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013: Movistar
Argentina Will Continue to Take Market Share from CTI Over the Next Five
Years" to their offering.
IEMR's Mobile Operator Forecast on Argentina provides over 65
operational and financial metrics for Argentina's wireless market and is
one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts
at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly
historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013.
Operators covered for Argentina include Telecom Argentina (TI), Movistar
Argentina (TEF), CTI (AMX), and Nextel. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts
are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through
IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational
metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the
world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary,
country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple
regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate
relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular
country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Wireless subscriber growth continues to slow down in Argentina +16.8%
industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2008
Positive ARPU growth over the last four quarters +6.9% industry average
ARPU growth in 3Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increasing +7.3% industry average MOU/Sub
growth in 3Q.2008
Strong EBITDA growth continues in Argentina's mobile operator space
Industry average EBITDA growth of +30% in 3Q.2008
So what is IEMR's Forecast?
Total subscribers to reach 51 million in 2013 We forecast that total
subscribers in Argentina will increase from 46.5 million in 2009 to 51.0
million in 2013. While Telecom Argentina, Movistar Argentina, and Nextel
will see their subscriber bases grow over the next five years, we expect
that the number of subscribers at CTI (AMX) will decrease over this
Movistar Argentina will continue to lead Argentina's mobile operator
Our model predicts that Movistar Argentina's market share (by
subscribers) will increase from 35.2% in 2009 to 39.1% in 2013. In
contrast, we expect that CTI's share of subscribers will decline from
34.8% in 2009 to 29.7% in 2013.
ARPUs levels to stabilize over the next five years We forecast that the
industry average monthly ARPU will increase from ARS (Argentine Peso)
38.28 to ARS 39.16 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013. Telecom
Argentina and Movistar Argentina will see their ARPU levels increase
over the next five years. Our model predicts that monthly ARPU at
Telecom Argentina will rise from ARS 39.13 to ARS 42.36 and monthly ARPU
at Movistar Argentina will rise from ARS 38.71 to ARS 41.93 over the
forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
EBITDA margins will increase in Argentina We forecast that the industry
average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will
improve from 31.1% in 2009 to 36.6% in 2013. Movistar Argentina will
lead all operators with a 44.7% EBITDA margin in 2013 while CTI comes in
second with 37.6% in 2013. Nextel will place third while Telecom
Argentina will come in last with 36.5% and 23.7% respectively in 2013.
Key Topics Covered:
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013
Telecom Argentina (TI)
Movistar Argentina (TEF)
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/75e813/1q09_argentina_mob.